U.S. JOB GROWTH FAILS TO MAKE DENT IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

During the darkest days of the recession, the U.S. economy was losing more than 700,000 jobs a month. When the dust settled, 8.2 million jobs were gone.

Gains so far this year have barely made a dent in this massive pool of jobless workers.

But if forecasters are right, May will mark the first major step toward putting the jobless back to work. The consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is that the economy created a half-million jobs in the month. Some say the total may reach as high as 700,000 when the U.S. Labour Department releases its monthly employment survey Friday.

That compares with gains of 290,000 in April and 230,000 in March.

But don't celebrate just yet. As many as 500,000 of the potential 700,000 new hires are temporary federal workers, who have fanned out across the country interviewing Americans for the 2010 census.

By mid-summer, they'll all be unemployed again. So while the census will add jobs in May, it will subtract them in June and July.

The larger problem for the United States is that while the economy is recovering, it's not growing fast enough to bring employment significantly down.

Unemployment stands at 9.9 per cent. And it could stay near that level for a while.

Gross domestic product - the broadest measure of economic activity - grew at an annual rate of 3 per cent in the first quarter. That's roughly what's needed just to keep up with population growth, but not enough to bring unemployment down.

It would take annual growth of 5 per cent to knock a percentage-point off the unemployment rate.

Unfortunately, few economists expect the economy to grow that fast. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board, for example, is forecasting growth of 2.8 to 3.5 per cent this year, 3.4 to 4.5 per cent in 2011 and no better than 4.5 per cent in 2012.

The bottom line is that until the pool of jobless workers shrinks significantly it's tough to envision a scenario where the United States booms again.

It could be a while before Americans return to their old ways of shopping, car buying and house hunting.